Is your top pick going to benefit from the pace shape (AKA race shape, pace profile, etc) or
will he have to overcome it? Also is today's track bias
in his favor? For example: let's say you like a horse in
a race and he's a front runner one dimensional type (E8).
Are there other E8's, E7's, E6's or E's in general? If
so then he's going to have to over come that. Is the track
favoring speed today at this distance? If not there's another
obstacle. On the other hand if there isn't much speed in the
race and the track is playing fast, you have a very
good bet on your hands there. The same holds true in the opposite for a closer (P's and
S's). Is there plenty of speed in the race to set up his late run? Is the
track bias not very speed favoring?.
Pace profile is
easy to recognize. Track bias is something you'll have to notice. Some
tracks are notorious for speed and others just the opposite.
Keep in mind some of the classier thoroughbreds could be far superior
to the rest of the field and can overcome MANY obstacles.
Get to know your track and check out the pace shape in each race.
Two small things to do that can make you cash a lot more tickets:
1) Be an intelligent player. Are you winning consistently?
2) Are you a student of the game?
Most of you that can answer no to one of the above questions will also
answer no to the other. It only takes a little effort to gain a lot of profit.
On our Diamond Reports or Gold Reports: Pace Shape Ratings -
This rating takes inventory of the speed points and run
style for each horse. It then assigns each race a rating. Depending on the rating,
you will know if each race favors speed, a closer or a balanced shape.
A race with a 4.5 or higher pace shape rating has a good amount of early speed.
5.5 or higher pace shape rating has a large amount of early speed and might favor
a closer depending on the track bias (which you, as student of the game, have a
log of in your notebook). Conversely, a pace shape rating of 1.0 to 3.0 could
definitely favor those with early speed especially if the track bias is favoring
speed. A rating between 3.5 and 4.5 is the balanced area and
these races will go where the track bias takes them or where the best horse does.
Since most turf races favor
closers, a pace shape rating in a turf race of 4.5 or higher definitely sets up
for the best closer.