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Off-Track Strategies


Let's take a look at this race where the track is MUDDY. We can see by the icons that the top pick favorite, #2 LITTLE COMPTON, has the "WET" 
notation. She runs well on a muddy track however the betting public has bet her down to odds on. We can't bet this horse at those odds. We look
again and see that #3 IMMA SARA is the only other horse in the race who also has the "WET" icon. She is being offered at 8-1 near post time and
our true odds on her are 6-1. This makes a nice overlay bet. Remember, an overlay in the top 4 picks and/or a longshot from picks 5,6,7 is what
we look for. See the race report from our Diamond report below as well as the results of the race:

3  Imma Sara        $17.80 4.80 3.40      $2 Perfecta 3-2       $31.60
2  Little Compton          2.60 2.20      $2 Trifecta 3-2-8    $176.20
8  Chips N Salsa                3.60
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Race 2 SUF 2 08/05/03  8fur D 3+yrM&F    C 5000   Purse= 6200 { T E }
=================================================================================

  2 LITTLE COMPTON (1/1)   
    Drops to the lowest class level of career today, which is a plus factor, and
    is the ONLY HORSE in this field showing this angle!. Total class rating is at
    least 15 points higher than any other horse in this field. That means it has
    raced competitive in the past versus similar or better competition. Has the
    important BACK CLASS EDGE!!. Gets the nod for best final time rating of this
    field for this year which means this horse could be very tough if that race
    is repeated today. Earnings per start average for current year is best in
    this field which means this horse has been productive versus similar or
    better competition. Did not have an ideal trip in last race and that made it
    tough for this horse to run its best race. Within its last few starts this
    horse has matched or exceeded par for final time at today's class level and
    distance, a strong attribute.
      HALORY HUNTER/FULL OUT   KY   DANDY RONALD J/HAMPSHIRE J F JR
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  8 CHIPS N SALSA (6/5)  
    Has the best early & mid pace ratings, the very important PACE ADVANTAGE!!.
    Early pace edge of 10 points or more means this horse could possibly get an
    easy lead and reserve energy early. Trainer has frequently gotten OVERLAY
    mutuels on winners this year so check to see if near post odds are generous.
      NORTHERN NO TRUMP/MATCH THE HATCH   KY   RADFORD KATHRYN L/THOMPSON W A
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  3 IMMA SARA (5/6)  
    This horse has the best top line pedigree for today's distance. Did not have
    an ideal trip in last race and that made it tough for this horse to run its
    best race. Had an outside post in each of the last few starts but gets a
    better starting position today finally.
      AGGRESSIVE CHIEF/EL PRADO    KY   LAFLEUR GIRARD E/JOHNSON R
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 1A CRYPTOINTHESTARS (6/6)
    Could be a factor on best effort today and might offer some value at the
    windows. Consider using if post time odds are generous.
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  4 YOU MISSED (8/6) 
    Form points are high, is coming back within 14 days of last start and could
    be in very good condition. Finished in the money versus a similar bunch in
    last start. Finishes in the money frequently at this distance, always a
    threat.
      YOUMADEYOURPOINT/RAJAB   FL   RICCIARDI ANTHONY/DUYS D C
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  1 REPTILE (6/8)
    Could be a factor on best effort today and might offer some value at the
    windows. Consider using if post time odds are generous.
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  6 REGAL LULLABY (15/6)
    This horse shows the best recent class figure which means it has run well in
    its last few races versus good company. Did not have an ideal trip in last
    race and that made it tough for this horse to run its best race.
      REGAL SEARCH/BUCKSPLASHER   FL   LOCKHART LORI L/SOSA P JR
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  5 GRAND PARTICULIER (15/8)
    Form points are high, is coming back within 14 days of last start and could
    be in very good condition.
      DEVIL HIS DUE/PRIVATE THOUGHTS   KY   MCGRAW PAUL/MASCARTE MAGALI
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  7 DEE'S DILEMMA (10/10) 
    Form points are high, is coming back within 14 days of last start and could
    be in very good condition.
      VICKSBURG/JOLIE'S HALO   FL   HANDY GEORGE R/PHILLIPS M
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CONFIDENCE RATING: B   BEST LONGSHOT THIS RACE:  4   PACE SHAPE RATING:  3.4
=================================================================================
  P HORSE LSX  M RUN   POW  CLASS   ER  MD  LT TOTAL SPD PRS  RCT DST CUR WRK LST
  # NAME  123  L STYLE RTG  TL*RE   PA  PA  PA PACE  FIG LVL  FIG FIG FRM PTS RCE
=================================================================================
Pace Pars-->                        79  70  73  144
  2 LITTLE.:   1  S 0  111  33*     70  70  93  163   67 408$  70  72   0  --  31
  8 CHIPS .:   6  E 8   96   5* 6   89  81  57  138   63 103   64  65   1  --  22
  3 IMMA S.:   5  P 0   91  11*     70  70  81  151   51 142   60  70   0  --  22
 1A CRYPTO.:   6  EP0   90   7* 5   75  71  74  146   64 103   57  51   2  --  13
  4 YOU MI.:   8  S 0   89   8* 6   62  60  72  132   59 103   59  61   8  --  13
  1 REPTIL.:   6  S 2   87   6* 5   70  62  61  123   63 103   62  54   4  --  13
  6 REGAL .:  15  EP4   87  16*16   66  66  77  143   53 103   51  51   4  --  13
  5 GRAND .:  15  E 4   86   1* 1   72  67  69  136   53 103   56  54   5  --  13
  7 DEE'S .:  10  E 5   81  18*     64  65  97  162   35 103   37  42   5  90  13
  
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