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Trainers and Longshots


This study will give you a good understanding on how to use the  "OVERLAY TRAINER" icon. If a horse has this icon AND is being offered
at nice odds it is worth paying close attention. Conversely if a horse has this icon and is bet down heavy, run the other direction!

Here in Race Study #2 the track is also MUDDY. The top pick #8 BRAZIL NUT is being bet down to 6-5 and even though she has
a lot to like we will not take her. Our true odds on her are 3-1. We look again and find the OVERLAY TRAINER icon and the 
W (best wet track pedigree icon) on a longshot who also sports a trainer angle. The longer you use our reports the easier it will become to spot
horses like #3 PEAKS. He leaped off the page at me because I know those W horses do well in the mud at big prices and the overlay trainer horses
always are a big threat on a horse running with big odds. #3 PEAKS was offered up at 28-1 on the tote board. Make a note, also, that the heavy
favorite #8 BRAZIL NUT also had the overlay trainer icon. This means the trainer wins at a price. This trainer does not push the button if his
horse is hammered down to 6-5!!!!!. #8 BRAZIL NUT finished dead last!

3  Peaks             $58.60 17.60 6.00
6  Twice Tricky              8.20 6.00
1  Graham's Surprise              3.60

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Race 9 SUF 9 08/05/03  6fur D 3+yrN    A   Purse= 17000 { T E S }
=================================================================================

  8 BRAZIL NUT (3/3)      
    Has the best pace ratings along with the best total class plus recent class.
    Wow, Big PACE & CLASS EDGE!!!. Total class rating is at least 15 points
    higher than any other horse in this field. That means it has raced competitive
    in the past versus similar or better competition. Has the important BACK
    CLASS EDGE!!. Has at least a 15 point RECENT CLASS EDGE which means this
    horse has run well in its last few races versus good company. Gets 5 lbs or
    more weight off from last start and that could give this horse a bit more
    bounce in its step. Trainer has frequently gotten OVERLAY mutuals on winners
    this year so check to see if near post odds are generous. Gets the nod for
    best final time rating of this field for this year which means this horse
    could be very tough if that race is repeated today. Earnings per start
    average for current year is best in this field which means this horse has
    been productive versus similar or better competition. Has high quality
    ratings for several important handicapping factors from its most recent races
    and this make it a high % SPOT PLAY!!!. Did not have an ideal trip in last
    race and that made it tough for this horse to run its best race. Finished in
    the money versus a similar bunch in last start. Within its last few starts
    this horse has matched or exceeded par for final time at today's class level
    and distance, a strong attribute.
      SANDPIT /STRAWBERRY ROAD    KY   RAYMOND ROBERT A/PHILLIPS M
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  5 HOORAYFORHOLLYWOOD (4/4)  
    Has the recent BEST SPEED FIGS and morning line odds are higher than 7/2!!.
    Has an excellent record at this track and that makes this thoroughbred
    a HORSE FOR THE COURSE, always a solid attribute. Within its last few starts
    this horse has matched or exceeded par for final time at today's class level
    and distance, a strong attribute.
      BROCCO/CORMORANT   KY   ARO MICHAEL C/VARGAS JORGE L
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  2 FLEETING TERM (5/4)   
    Trainer has frequently gotten OVERLAY mutuels on winners this year so check
    to see if near post odds are generous. Trainer has much success with those
    making their second start in this barn, really tightens the screws for this
    2nd start. Within its last few starts this horse has matched or exceeded par
    for final time at today's class level and distance, a strong attribute.
    Forwardly placed in its last race but came up short in the stretch. Was
    coming off a freshening so that race was well needed. Could improve today and
    carry its speed further 2ND RACE OFF A LAYOFF.
      HALF TERM/SEATTLE SLEW   CA   MARCOUX WAYNE J/BELMONTE W
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  9 JOHN ALAN (8/5)  
    Form points are high, is coming back within 14 days of last start and could
    be in very good condition. Has the BEST TOTAL PACE rating, ML odds are better
    than 7/2 and that means a possible overlay situation exists here!. Trainer
    has frequently gotten OVERLAY mutuels on winners this year so check to see if
    near post odds are generous. Finished in the money versus a similar bunch in
    last start.
      J. C.'S CHALLENGE/MR. RALPH   KY   MARCOUX WAYNE J/HAMPSHIRE J F JR
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  1 GRAHAM'S SURPRISE (4/6)
    Had an outside post in each of the last few starts but gets a better starting
    position today finally.
      DOVE HUNT/ON TO GLORY   FL   COTRONE DENISE/LOZANO W JR
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  6~TWICE TRICKY (8/8)
    Could be a factor on best effort today and might offer some value at the
    windows. Consider using if post time odds are generous.
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  3 PEAKS (20/8)    
    Trainer has frequently gotten OVERLAY mutuels on winners this year so check
    to see if near post odds are generous. This horse has the best top line
    pedigree for today's distance. Trainer does very well with those coming off a
    layoff of at least 30 days, all the top trainers do well running them fresh.
      MT. LIVERMORE/LYPHARD   KY   KELLY SUZANNE F/PIERMARINI T
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  4 NICELY TOASTED (6/8) 
    Had a workout recently that ranked among the best of all who worked that same
    distance on that same morning, sharp.
      PRESS CARD/TRUE COLORS   PA   GRUSMARK KARL/PANELL D
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  7 OH SAY GLORY (20/20)  
    Trainer has frequently gotten OVERLAY mutuels on winners this year so check
    to see if near post odds are generous.
      LORD CARSON/OH SAY   KY   RAYMOND ROBERT A/JELLISON J A
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CONFIDENCE RATING: B   BEST LONGSHOT THIS RACE:  9   PACE SHAPE RATING:  5.6
=================================================================================
  P HORSE LSX  M RUN   POW  CLASS   ER  MD  LT TOTAL SPD PRS  RCT DST CUR WRK LST
  # NAME  123  L STYLE RTG  TL*RE   PA  PA  PA PACE  FIG LVL  FIG FIG FRM PTS RCE
=================================================================================
Pace Pars-->                        97 101  88  189
  8 BRAZIL.:   3  E 5  108  38*39   97 104   0    0   89 197   83  87   0  88  49
  5 HOORAY.:   4  EP4   99   2* 2   87  93  95  188   92  47   78  77   8  --  15
  2 FLEETI.:   5  EP7   99   5*     93  99  88  187   85 118   80  79   6  --  21
  9 JOHN A.:   8  E 8   97   6* 4   95 100  92  192   77  77   77  77   8  --  13
  1 GRAHAM.:   4  P 2   97   6* 8   90  99  87  186   86  64   78  78   3  --  14
  6~TWICE .:   8  E 4   96   5*     94  99  85  184   79 188   78  77   1 109 193
  3 PEAKS..:  20  E 7   93  11* 6   96  99  83  182   82  44   70  68   3  --  34
  4 NICELY.:   6  P 2   91  17*     89  97  83  180   77  73   70  70   1  83 269
  7 OH SAY.:  20  EP4   88   1* 1   87  90  89  179   78  43   63  67   8  --  14
  
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