RacingPicks.com, Your Winning Site!

Turf and Maiden Race Strategies


This study looks at both turf races and maiden races. It's a maiden turf race, Maiden Special Weight to be exact.
See the race analysis below to refer back and forth with the race study:

What is the first thing we look for in any turf race? Answer: Which horse has the comment for BEST TOTAL PACE.
The comment reads "Has the BEST TOTAL PACE rating, ML odds are better than 7/2 and that means a  possible
overlay situation exists here!." The horse with the top total pace figure who has a generous odds offering should
always be considered.

This being a maiden turf race, what would be the next normal thing to look for? Answer: Which horse has the
best pedigree for the turf which is designated  by the  icon. Only 1 horse per turf race gets
this icon. We have found that whether it be a maiden special turf race, an allowance turf race for winners
or any kind of turf race, the horse that gets this icon should always be considered. Especially if that horse is
long in odds.

#6 Echo Jo had our true odds of 3-1 as the second pick and was being offered at 8-1. That alone would have
been a good enough reason to bet her!!. The third pick #12 Pleasant Sands was also overlaid. She had our
true odds of 7-2 but was 10-1 on the tote board near post time. The top pick #5 GRANDE JETE was bet down to 4-5!.
Not even close to our true odds of 5-2. The betting public sent way too much money in on her and this is where our
opportunities come in! She was a bad bet and ended up finishing 10th in the race.

Think about this: What maiden deserves to be sent off at 4/5 odds? That is so ridiculous if you think about
it!. And in a 12 horse field on the turf where all kinds of trouble can happen. It was even a yielding turf!! You get
the point. Sure those types of horses do win but in the long run it is a long term loosing proposition to back them.

6  Echo Jo             $18.60 9.80 6.80    $2 Exacta 6-12            $201.60
12 Pleasant Sands             8.80 6.60    $2 Superfecta 6-12-7-2   8,877.60
7  Splashing Princess              6.60    $2 Trifecta 6-12-7       2,140.20

=================================================================================
Race 5 AP  5 08/06/03  8.5fur T 3&4yrF    MSW   Purse= 30000 { D T 3 E S }
=================================================================================

  5 GRANDE JETE (2.5/2.5)  
    Jockey wins at a high % this meet, getting live mounts. Gets the nod for best
    final time rating of this field for this year which means this horse could be
    very tough if that race is repeated today. Has high quality ratings for
    several important handicapping factors from its most recent races and this
    make it a high % SPOT PLAY!!!. Finished in the money versus a similar bunch
    in last start.
      WESTERN PLAYBOY/IRON COURAGE   IL   VANIER HARVEY L/DOUGLAS R R
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  6 ECHO JO (6/3)  
    Has the BEST TOTAL PACE rating, ML odds are better than 7/2 and that means a
    possible overlay situation exists here!. Has the best top line turf pedigree
    of any horse in this field!. Had an outside post in each of the last few
    starts but gets a better starting position today finally.
      EASTERN ECHO/TRANSWORLD   IL   KASPERSKI JOSEPH JR/EMIGH C A
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 12 PLEASANT SANDS (3/4.5)
    1st timer has been working out regularly leading up to debut today and might
    run well at first asking!.
      SANDPIT /PLEASANT COLONY   IL   SCHERER RICHARD R/VITEK J J
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  9~SANDRA THERESE (12/6) 
    Has the recent BEST SPEED FIGS and morning line odds are higher than 7/2!!.
    Ranks within the 5 point rule in power rating, ML odds are 8/1 or higher and
    that makes this thoroughbred a LIVE LONGSHOT today!!. Rated a major contender
    and could go off at OVERLAY odds!!!. Earnings per start average for current
    year is best in this field which means this horse has been productive versus
    similar or better competition. Showed good speed from the start to the
    stretch in last start but faded late. Shows a pattern that indicates this
    horse might carry its speed further today, the SPEED & FADE ANGLE!
      SANDY'S HONEY/STEINLEN    IL   MILLER DAN C II/BOURQUE C C
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  4 SUPERDUMAAN (6/6)
    Finished in the money versus a similar bunch in last start.
      DUMAANI/SUPERBITY   IL   JANKS CHRISTINE K/CAMPBELL J M
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  2~RUSH CREEK (12/8) 
    Sometimes horses make the big improvement racing with LASIX FOR THE 3RD TIME
    so consider that a factor. This horse has the best top line pedigree for
    today's distance. Had an outside post in each of the last few starts but gets
    a better starting position today finally.
      PERUVIAN/LORD AT WAR    IL   KIRBY FRANK J/JUAREZ A J JR
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  7~SPLASHING PRINCESS (12/12) 
    Had a recent workout that was the best of the day for the distance, usually a
    good indication of a high fitness level.
      BUCKSPLASHER/PIRATEER   IL   HICKEY P NOEL/ST JULIEN M
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  8~NURSE TYPE (20/12)
    3RD TIME LASIX here and sometimes that's the most important race.
      A LEE ROVER/IF THIS BE SO   IL   DUPUY DONNA L/FIRES E
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1~ZIP IT (20/12) 
    Sometimes horses make the big improvement racing with LASIX FOR THE 3RD TIME
    so consider that a factor. Trainer has frequently gotten OVERLAY mutuels on
    winners this year so check to see if near post odds are generous.
      WELL DECORATED/ZEN   IL   BRAJCZEWSKI EUGENE F/MARQUEZ C H JR
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 10~FLOR DEL SOL (20/15)
    2ND TIME LASIX here and sometimes horses improve the second time on the
    medication.
      UNREAL ZEAL/APALACHEE   IL   YANEZ MOISES R/LOPEZ U A
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  3~KATIE'S BEST (20/20)
    2ND TIME LASIX here and sometimes horses improve the second time on the
    medication.
      EXECUTIVE ORDER/VENCEDOR   IL   MILLER DAN C II/SILVA C H
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CONFIDENCE RATING: C   BEST LONGSHOT THIS RACE:  9   PACE SHAPE RATING:  5.0
=================================================================================
  P HORSE LSX  M RUN   POW  CLASS   ER  MD  LT TOTAL SPD PRS  RCT DST CUR WRK LST
  # NAME  123  L STYLE RTG  TL*RE   PA  PA  PA PACE  FIG LVL  FIG FIG FRM PTS RCE
=================================================================================
Pace Pars-->                        85  83  84  166
  5 GRANDE.: 5/2  S 0   99   7* 7   77  79  79  157   72  94   68  68   0  57  21
  6 ECHO J.:   6  P 1   97    *     81  78  81  158   68   0   62  71   1  65  21
 12 PLEASA.1   3  First 96    *      timer                 0            2 100
  9~SANDRA.:  12  EP7   94    * 6   89  81   0    0   72  70   67   0   2  --  24
  4 SUPERD.:   6  EP6   93   6* 6   87  84  66  150   66   0   66  66   0  --  21
  2~RUSH C.3  12  na2   86    *     84  70   0    0   63   0    0   0  -3  --  53
 11 SPARKL.:  15  P 6   85   5* 5   77  70  70  141   57  90   58  58   0  --  21
  7~SPLASH.:  12  E 8   79    * 4   82  79   0    0   62  72   59   0  -1  89  51
 13~SUGART.:   8  E 4   74    * 3   83  72   0    0   62  24   51   0   0  57  34
  8~NURSE .3  20  na4   65    *     79  58   0    0   47   0    0   0   1  91  13
  1~ZIP IT.3  20  na8   61    *     86  54   0    0   44   0   45   0  -1  68  26
 14~FEVER .:  30  S 2   59    *     74  81   0    0   48  36   48   0  -1  --  14
 10~FLOR D.2  20  na6   37    *     93  19   0    0   25   0    0   0  -2  71  33
  3~KATIE'.2  20  na1   33    *     67  43   0    0   19   0    0   0  -1  --  13
  

Back


Copyright © Slew the Odds, Inc. 1996-2014 - Daily Horse Racing Reports. All rights reserved. | E-mail Webmaster