Successful horseplayers know trainer intent is very important
in the handicapping process. At certain tracks more than others.
The overlay trainer icon =
We have written about
this subject previously but it has such a great impact on making
a profit that we thought it deserves even more attention.
The horses that have this icon have trainers that regularly like
to score at a price. Certain trainers will only green light a
horse if he/she can get odds. This race is so classic for an
example. As you can see the race has three horses with the
overlay trainer icon. Remember - picks 5,6,7 are a great
source for longshot winners:
2 WESTERN RAMPAGE (10/8)...10-1 ML has our true odds of 8-1. Odds
offered near post time 16-1.
OVERLAY! - a great play!
9 COURTHOUSE (4/8)...4-1 ML has our true odds of 8-1. Odds offered
near post time 7-1. Not a good play, underlay.
8 SAMPSON'S SON (8/12)...8-1 ML has our true odds of 12-1. Odds
offered near post time 9-2. Not a good play for the win bet but
good enough to use in the exactas with the overlay.
2 Western Rampage $34.20 12.80 4.80
$2 Exacta $243.80
8 Sampson's Son 5.60 3.40
4 Up Anchor 2.60
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Race 6 AP 6 08/08/03 5.5fur D 2yrN MCl 50000 Purse= 23000 { T 3 E S }
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4 UP ANCHOR (2.5/2.5)
Races with 1ST TIME LASIX today and could make a BIG improvement. Trainer
does extremely well with those racing with lasix for the 1st time. Jockey
wins at a high % this meet, getting live mounts. Gets the nod for best final
time rating of this field for this year which means this horse could be very
tough if that race is repeated today. Earnings per start average for current
year is best in this field which means this horse has been productive versus
similar or better competition. Trainer does very well with those making
their second career maiden start, gets one under their belt 1st but today is
a go!. Finished in the money versus a similar bunch in last start.
POLISH NAVY/SEATTLE SONG KY MCGEE PAUL/DOUGLAS R R
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5 EL GALLO (12/4.5)
1st timer has been working out regularly leading up to debut today and might
run well at first asking!.
CONCERN/ALPHABATIM FL YANEZ MOISES R/MARQUEZ C H JR
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6 BEAR BLUFF (10/3)
Races with 2ND TIME LASIX so a big race could be pending. Has the recent BEST
SPEED FIGS and morning line odds are higher than 7/2!!. Ranks within the 5
point rule in power rating, ML odds are 8/1 or higher and that makes this
thoroughbred a LIVE LONGSHOT today!!. Rated a major contender and could go
off at OVERLAY odds!!!. Drops into a claiming race for the 1st time, should
find this field much easier and could make a big improvement today!!!.
Had a workout recently that ranked among the best of all who worked that same
distance on that same morning, sharp.
PINE BLUFF/AFFIRMED KY SCHU SALLY S/RAZO E JR
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1 MT. SILVER (3/4)
2nd lasix angle applies here so this horse could move up today. This horse
has the best top line pedigree for today's distance. Showed good speed from
the start to the stretch in last start but faded late. Shows a pattern that
indicates this horse might carry its speed further today, the SPEED & FADE
ANGLE!
LUCKY LIONEL/SILVER HAWK FL CALHOUN WILLIAM BRET/MEIER R
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2 WESTERN RAMPAGE (10/8)
2ND TIME LASIX here and sometimes horses improve the second time on the
medication. Drops into a claiming race for the 1st time, should find this
field much easier and could make a big improvement today!!!. Trainer has
frequently gotten OVERLAY mutuels on winners this year so check to see if
near post odds are generous. Trainer does very well with those making their
second career maiden start, gets one under their belt 1st but today is a go!.
Had a workout recently that ranked among the best of all who worked that same
distance on that same morning, sharp.
WAY WEST /COMMANDING LEAD FL MAKER REBECCA/BOURQUE C C
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9 COURTHOUSE (4/8)
2ND TIME LASIX here and sometimes horses improve the second time on the
medication. Trainer has frequently gotten OVERLAY mutuels on winners this
year so check to see if near post odds are generous. Finished in the money
versus a similar bunch in last start.
DONERAILE COURT/WOLF POWER KY GORHAM ROBERT M/MOLINA TOMMY
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3~CODE OF ANGELS (8/10)
Has the
BEST TOTAL PACE rating, ML odds are better than 7/2 and that means a
possible overlay situation exists here!. Drops into a claiming race for the
1st time, should find this field much easier and could make a big improvement
today!!!.
LOST CODE/NODOUBLE KY BROTHERS FRANK L/ST JULIEN M
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8 SAMPSON'S SON (8/12)
Trainer has frequently gotten OVERLAY mutuels on winners this year so check
to see if near post odds are generous. Had a workout recently that ranked
among the best of all who worked that same distance on that same morning,
sharp.
LIL'S LAD/SUPER CONCORDE KY HOBBY STEVE/EMIGH C A
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CONFIDENCE RATING: C BEST LONGSHOT THIS RACE: 6 PACE SHAPE RATING: 1.8
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P HORSE LSX M RUN POW CLASS ER MD LT TOTAL SPD PRS RCT DST CUR WRK LST
# NAME 123 L STYLE RTG TL*RE PA PA PA PACE FIG LVL FIG FIG FRM PTS RCE
=================================================================================
Pace Pars--> 96 97 85 182
4 UP ANC.1 5/2 S 0 104 5* 5 81 97 0 0 88 103 0 84 5 -- 20
5 EL GAL.: 12 First103 * timer 0 2 95
6 BEAR B.2 10 na0 102 * 86 89 0 0 90 0$ 0 86 2 76 26
1 MT. SI.2 3 E 6 102 19*19 92 85 0 0 87 103 0 83 8 78 20
2 WESTER.2 10 na0 96 * 75 94 0 0 82 0$ 0 81 2 75 26
9 COURTH.2 4 E 5 90 2* 2 90 77 0 0 74 103 0 73 4 -- 20
3~CODE O.: 8 na1 88 * 92 94 66 160 71 0$ 0 70 4 72 20
8 SAMPSO.: 8 First 34 * timer 0 1 67
7 COME O.: 12 First 34 * timer 0 2 91
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