1) Did you have those 3,4 or 5 big monster days this year? The kind of days that can make your whole year. If not then you are following the wrong path, the wrong horse playing agenda. Read on to solve this problem.
2) Do you really understand what your challenge is when you are wagering on a horse race? Most horseplayers would love it if they saw a horse they liked with a ML of 4-1 get bet down to 9-5. They would think "wow my pick must be live, it's getting a lot of action". Now 9-5 would be ok if your horse's true chances of winning converted to true odds of 6-5 or less but if he is a true 4-1 or 3-1 shot then that bet at 9-5 is a sure way to a deflated bankroll. This is a game of chance. If there are 12 horses in a race, each horse has some chance to win. Even the horse that looks the worst has some chance to win. The idea is to accurately convert each horse's true chance of winning into true odds then look for an opportunity to bet him when the public lets him go off at higher odds. This game plan gives you an edge on the odds. It is a common rule not to take a horse too seriously if his true odds are 10-1 or more. There has to be a threshold somewhere and that seems to be it. Some other professionals might argue that it is more like 8-1 but it all depends on the race. If you see a horse with true odds of 5-1, 6-1 or 8-1 (for example) go off at much larger odds, it is worth a good look. An overlay does not have to be a longshot either. You could have a horse with true odds of 2-1 that goes off at 3-1. That would be a fantastic overlay opportunity as well. A couple of perfect examples of longshot overlays occurred on a recent day at Calder. A horse called Cat's Pajamas was 12-1 in the morning line, OUR TRUE ODDS were 6-1 on this horse. Now this already has the foundation for an overlay play. The horse has true odds low enough to make it a serious contender in the race. The betting public let this horse go off at 38-1 odds!!!!. It won to pay $78.00!. On this same day at Calder a horse called Gemma's Star was 10-1 in the morning line, OUR TRUE ODDS on this pony were 5-1. Here again, already a solid foundation for a solid bet. The public let this horse go off at 19-1 odds! It won to pay $40.20!. The main part of this strategy is to have accurate TRUE ODDS for each horse. You CAN NOT use the morning line because the track odds maker makes the line based on how he feels the public will bet. That is the job of the odds maker at each track. Our Diamond reports for all tracks have our extremely accurate true odds line for each horse in the handicapper analysis section.
3) Do you like to bet every race? If yes then that is natural. Most horseplayers want to bet every race. We recommend you find your best plays of the day and concentrate the majority of your wagering dollars to those plays. On the other races bet a very small amount if you want action. 1% of your wagering bankroll is a max for races to "just have some action". We know several professionals, who are also members, who will bet only $2 on a race they don't like but want some action. In the races you feel more confident with you can bet 2% to 5% of your bankroll.
4) Do you keep a wagering log?. There are many reasons to keep a log. An important reason is you will be able to see what type of races you have success with. Each horseplayer has their own type(s) of race they do better in. Some do well in turf races, some do well in maiden races, some do well in chaos races, some do well in contentious races, etc, etc. By keeping a detailed wager log you can take notes along the way and this will greatly improve your game. Does your wagering log show you made a profit for the year? If not then you are, here again, not doing what you need to do. You are most likely stuck in a self-destructive mind set and/or a hole you dug yourself. You do not have to lose at this game and contrary to what Joe at the track told you, it is possible to beat this game. There are plenty of people doing it so why not you. You just need the tools and guidance to get there but you will have to broaden your mind. A narrow minded approach to anything in life will get you nowhere in a hurry.
5) Have you been confident in all the wagers you place? If not it is because you don't have the mindset or outline of what it takes to succeed in this game. You know the people you meet at the track or OTB?. The ones who are willing to share info with you and give you their opinions? They make you feel like one of them. What they say makes sense, or so it appears. They are all over the speed figures or another 1 prong attack. Their whole objective, and yours most likely, is to find the horse who can win the race. If we asked 1000 horseplayers why they handicap a race, 900 of them would answer "to find the winner". Success in this game is not just to find the winner. Think about how many winners you have picked out and bet over the years yet you still can't seem to make a long term profit. Finding a winner is the "WHO" aspect of this game. The "WHO" will not make you a profit. The way to profit is the "HOW" aspect that most horseplayers can't grab on to.
6) Did you know that many horseplayers are self-destructive? We will give you a NEW mind set on this game and you WILL improve. If you are not making long term profit then stop punishing yourself and treat yourself to a horseplayer's best asset. If you are ready to break the negative mold that you are in, we are here and ready to help you. That is why we exist. That is why we are growing and celebrated our 5th year on the internet in January 2002!. If you are not making long term profit, and many of you are not, then you have 2 choices to make. A) Continue your self -destructive path into yet another year...or...B) Make a change to get a new outlook, a positive attitude and a positive bankroll!. Get a fresh new mindset, start having fun at this game and wagering with CONFIDENCE!.....................It's a no brainer and your ulcer will thank you...............We'll see you on the other side!
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